Omnipresent Big Screens
Where isn't there a big flat screen TV?
As ubiquitous as they seem, you ain't seen nothin yet. They will be EVERYWHERE. The bathroom in the mall, every 10' in the mall, every subway car and station, vending machine, gas pump, etc. Everywhere. The implications for the wireless industry by 2020 have only mildly been evaluated...but if you think the iPhone sucks the network dry, wait until there are WAN supported LANs that are feeding all of these broadband sucking devices.
I'm typing this on my G5 Mac with a 30" Cinema screen (look above...i'm a normal human and my setup is not suitable for a magazine ad) As a means to watch a film, or multitask, it's phenomenal. I won't admit what I paid for it in 2004, but it is truly a gift that keeps on giving. I love it...but I love the TV in my family room more (we have no TV in our living room)...the Pioneer Elite FHD1 Plasma 50" monitor. It's extraordinary. It also gets extraordinarily hot, and is quite heavy. Green it's not. Beautiful it is...and EXTRAORDINARILY expensive. But it too is the gift that keeps on giving. There is nothing quite like watching Zack and Cody on this precious monitor.
when I purchased these two monitors back in the middle of the decade they were extravagant...today they are par for the course. Well, the size is anyway. This week my 17 year old received a 32" 1080P flat screen TV for XMAS. It costs me $250 at Costco. 20X less than I paid for the 50X plasma. Wow. The mid-90s extravagant purchase has become the typical TV. Was all this predictable? what are we going to display on all these monitors? Ads? Weather (like at the Shell station)? truly personal content (as in Minority Report)?
I met with the Chief Strategy Officer of AMD about five years ago in Austin. AMD has always been, to me anyway, the "little brother" of Intel. To me, AMD was always about Jerry Sanders. He had driven the company to be one step ahead of Intel from a technology standpoint, but was in his own way a flamboyant businessman in what is truly an "engineer's world" - semiconductors.
but I digress.
Billy had it right on the nose: they have ramped capacity so much and so widely that the price has dropped to the cost of a nice dinner for two couples. I must say that my plasma screen TV looks RADICALLY better than my 17 year olds LCD flat screen. Not all 1080P monitors are created equal.
Back in 2004 Billy told me:
1. Big screen TVs, which China - even then - owned, would take over the earth and by the time of the olympics in 2008 would be "super cheap". In late 2004 60% of the big screen TVs were made in China.
2. Billy thought Qualcomm's MediaFlo was dumb. He saw no market for wide-area broadcast video to mobiles. He saw tremendous value for LAN distribution, but unlike Intel, they were non-investors in WiMAX.
where isn't there a big screen TV? as I mentioned, I purchased a "Proscan" LCD 32" LCD 1080p TV for my 17-year-old for XMAS from WalMat: $300. Amazing.
So picture this: big HD tvs everywhere with IPTV or other Broadband wireless connections. Hopefully broadcast
from the press:
For Orbotech, the sector with the most potential for strong growth over the coming two years is equipment for inspecting LCD TV screens of all sizes. Analysts are unanimous in their view that over the four major sales events of the period Black Friday, Christmas, the day after NewYear's day, and the Chinese New Year LCD screens were and will be among the big hits. Sales are not collapsing this year, nor is inventory too large - so expectations are that screen makers will put into effect the plans they have on the shelves to make large investments in new and existing production lines. Some investments have been announced and were put into action, and some are on the way.
The main driver for the LCD screen market, which will bring a lot of gains to Orbotech, is the plummeting sales of "old technology" CRT televisions in developing countries, primarily China, and the concurrent move to LCD screens. According to analysts, 2009 should see a sharp 40% drop in CRT television sales, compared with a drop of about 15% in each of the previous three years. That is, even if the overall TV market grows only 5% next year, the LCD niche will grow more than 22%. Nearly every expansion of a factory, or building of a new one (and in China 7-8 new factories are planned) means a lot of orders for Orbotech, since it has a market share of over 70%.










