Friday, August 13, 2004

This morning, I was sent the musings of a Toby Keith fan on how WalMart would be the next,Verizon (well, Nextel maybe...or Leap Wireless more likely). This fellow believes that somehow WalMart's 3000 locations IN THE U.S. will provide WiMax access to the homes in America. Of course he was not the first person this week to consider this idea, it's been bubbling around a few blogs and wireless news feeds. Look folks, according to the CTIA there are close to 175,000 cell sites in the U.S. If you assume these are evenly divided (they are not) by the top 7 carriers - who carry >90% of all mobile traffic, that's 25,000 RF sites EACH.

Sorry, even neglecting the challenges of customer care, dead zones, spectrum, etc., this does not compute. WalMart IS a great retailer: it would be a great place to puchase a self-install device, a great place to pay your bill, and yes, an option in a portion of the backhaul/POPs for a carrier. What WalMart needs is a network - not a few mega-stores - in a typical populated area. Moreover, to beef up coverage, WalMart (realizing this as the wireless gurus they are) would need to put up 10X the number of cell sites as they have stores. Great idea! Can you hear it in the board room now? ("look, we haven't pissed off enough activists in local communities yet..let's install an extra 10 cell towers near each of our stores").

WalMart offering telecom services? interesting idea. Walmart constructing and operating their own WiMax network? ludicrous.

1 Comments:

Blogger Dan Sherman said...

Hi Spass,

I'm the "Toby Keith" fan you're referring to. Just some clarification. I was the FIRST person to offer up the possibility that Walmart might get into the WiMax game. The other posts you talk about all came about from my original post. Check the dates. :-)

Second, other than some our biggest fast food chains, no one has a retail presence like Walmart in the US. WiMax only requires a 20 mile radius or so around the transmission site. I would venture to guess that 75% of America lives within a 20 mile distance from a Walmart.

However, that is only a part of the equation. There is NO OTHER retailer in the US that could get subscriber units for such a low price than WalMart. I can GUARANTEE that if WalMart starting handing out subscriber units like they were candy and offered T-1 speeds for $19.95 a month, there would be hell to pay in the telecom sector. (People jumping off tall buildings... etc.)

Yes, there are PLENTY of obstacles to this plan when it comes to logistics. But I'm not sure how well versed you are on Walmart and their history and logistical prowess, but they are essentially the model of a logistically perfect company.

The real question is IF they want to get into it. If they do, it's as good as done.

Cheers!
Dan

10:46 AM  

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